Parsed Participle

I discovered this post a while ago: Some Perspective On The Japan Earthquake. On radiation, and bananas:

At present, in terms of radiation risk, the tsunami appears to be a wash: on the one hand there’s a near nuclear meltdown, on the other hand the tsunami disrupted something really dangerous: international flights. (One does not ordinarily associate flying commercial airlines with elevated radiation risks. Then again, one doesn’t normally associate eating bananas with it, either. When you hear news reports of people exposed to radiation, keep in mind, at the moment we’re talking a level of severity somewhere between “ate a banana” and “carries a Delta Skymiles platinum membership card”.)

On luck, and preparedness:

(An earlier draft of this post said “lucky.” I have since reworded because, honestly, screw luck. Luck had absolutely nothing to do with it. Decades of good engineering, planning, and following the bloody checklist are why this was a serious disaster and not a nation-ending catastrophe like it would have been in many, many other places.)

Graphs courtesy Ishida-san. The data is pulled off of here. JAIST is the "Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology". All graphs are updated once every 30 minutes.

Radiation in Tokyo, By Day

Note that 0.035uSv/h is the normal amount. This means that Tokyo is still experiencing almost thrice the usual amount of radiation.

These graphs also feature values recorded at Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture. (Ibaraki Prefecture is where the Contaminated Spinach was discovered)

Radiation in Tokyo, By Week

Radiation in Tokyo, By Month

I am in Sapporo now. Despite news of radioactive iodine traces found in tap water, I do not believe that Tokyo is actually dangerous to be in at this time. However, having left Tokyo for Sapporo, the fears of most friends and family outside Japan have been allayed greatly. Quite frankly, these fears themselves, and repeated pleas that I flee the country have been a greater cause of anxiety than the actual events themselves.

There is far much more alarm felt overseas, I believe, than within Japan itself. This is understandable - in a way, the international media has exacerbated the panic felt outside of Japan, especially as far as Fukushima is concerned. Some headlines from this week that talk of the situation in and around Fukushima read as though they also apply to Tokyo, and in some cases, the whole of Japan as well. It's very true, for example, that quite a few emergency workers at the plant are risking their lives by exposure to high levels of radiation - but in Tokyo, where the readings are still too small to pose any long-term risks, the current level of panic is not justified. It's triggered by ignorance that in a way cannot be helped - it's very difficult to explain technical details objectively, given that we're talking about nuclear power plants. If one has an objective look at the numbers, the panic seems both exaggerated and in a way, disrespectful to the people who are actually risking their lives at the location of the reactors. As of Sunday, the situation at the reactors is looking up, if anything.

MEXT (The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) publishes readings by area:

According to this, taking a chest X-ray is far more dangerous than being in Tokyo even at the time of the radiation spike (approximately 9:00 AM last Tuesday).

Tokyo University publishes readings measured at the Campus as well.

Sweden, apparently, has regions where there are higher levels of natural radiation.

NHK World and Kyodo News provide faster and more accurate updates (in English):

• NHK World
• Kyodo News
• TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co.), the operator of the troubled plants in Fukushima, provides regular and detailed updates in English.

Meanwhile, here in Sapporo I have access to television, which I did not have in Tokyo, having only just moved to a new apartment. Things are not great, but they are not as bad as the international media makes them appear. And, at the present moment, they are getting better. Will things get worse? If so, what exactly is the worst case? I found this summary of background information very useful (Thanks, Curt). Read from the section titled, What in the hell is going on here? It's recommended if you started on Wikipedia with Chernobyl and found it too technical to read through. I only wish I found it before having spent a few hours on Wikipedia myself.

To sum it all, I'm not planning on leaving Japan. And that is not just about solidarity, it's more about common sense and practicality, at this point. I do have a holiday planned, towards the end of April / beginning of May, and I'm hoping to stick to that, though. In any case, I am sufficiently far from both Fukushima and Tokyo (Sapporo is about 500km North of the reactors). People are upbeat, cheerful, and there is news of reconstruction everywhere. Sapporo City has already begun issuing temporary housing to evacuees from Fukushima (as of the day before yesterday).

Today's earthquake is apparently the largest ever recorded in Japan.

Once things settle, I will post in another blog about my general disappearance from the blogosphere. But first things first:

• I was in Tokyo, in Office, on the 8th floor when it struck.
• I am safe, and so is everyone I know - almost - I have yet to speak to my landlady.
• The shaking lasted for several minutes, and a good component of the vibrations were on the vertical axis. There were at least two, long (of the order of several minutes) large spans of violent shaking, and continuous tremors till nearly evening.
• Trains are not running. As a result, the streets are filled everywhere with millions of commuters walking back home. For some, it may take well over six hours to get home.
• JR (Japan Railways) has offically stopped all operations until morning.